Political Accountability and Development
Electoral Integrity and Local Development
Natalia Garbiras-Díaz and Mateo Montenegro
Does electoral integrity improve local development? Prevailing theories of democracy suggest that well-functioning elections allow citizens to select good politicians (selection channel) and incentivize their effort (accountability channel). Despite the intuitive logic of these arguments, there is limited empirical evidence supporting them. We address this gap by leveraging unique experimental variation in electoral integrity from a randomized intervention conducted during Colombia’s 2019 mayoral elections, which reduced electoral irregularities. We document four findings. First, treated municipalities experienced increased access to local public goods over the subsequent four years. Second, mayors in treated municipalities became more efficient and less wasteful, as measured by procurement outcomes and corruption-related judicial processes. Third, we develop a novel framework to quantify the contribution of the selection channel and find it plays a substantial role in the overall effect. Finally, we find that alternative explanations—such as increased citizen demand—are unlikely to account for the results. These findings underscore the developmental value of transparent elections.
Government Oversight and Inter-Institutional Legibility: Evidence from Colombia (Conditionally Accepted at the Journal of Politics)
Natalia Garbiras-Díaz and Tara Slough
Effective governance requires reliable information. Many types of administrative data are produced from decentralized entities' reports to the central government. The use of these data for policymaking or oversight creates incentives for decentralized bureaucrats to strategically (mis)report, reducing the quality of the resultant data. We conceptualize this challenge as one of inter-institutional legibility, shaped by principal-agent dynamics between central and decentralized governments. We study these dynamics experimentally in the production of Colombia's National Transparency Index by partnering with a national watchdog agency to assess the effect of increasing the salience of oversight on decentralized entities' reporting behavior. More salient oversight changes reported scores and may marginally increase reporting rates. Comparing self-reports to an independent audit, we show that selection, distortion, and noise in reports limit the legibility of these entities to the central government. Our findings underscore the challenge of administrative data collection and the use of these data.- Presented at the 2021 APSA Annual Meeting
Accents as Capital
Leopoldo Fergusson, Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, and Michael Weintraub
Do accents shape social and economic interactions? We answer this question using an experiment embedded in an online survey of 6,000 Colombian adults. Respondents evaluated paired profiles whose audio introductions used either a high- or low-class accent, while income, education, and other attributes were independently randomized. We find a sizable accent premium: speakers with high-class accents are 5–16 percentage points more likely to be chosen as friends, business partners, colleagues, or bosses. The premium is significantly larger among respondents with high socioeconomic status, consistent with an in-group favoritism that can reproduce inequality. Our design allows us to disentangle the effect of accents from income and education, ruling out that inferences about these other forms of capital drive the premium. We further show that the premium vanishes for high-class foreign accents, suggesting that class cues are culturally specific and difficult for outsiders to detect. Finally, we document that respondents systematically associate high-class accents with multiple proxies of social status. Overall, our findings reveal how linguistic signals reinforce social barriers and should inform policy efforts to reduce inequality and promote social mobility.
Social Norms and the Persistence of Corruption: Experimental evidence of individuals' attitudes and behavior related to corruption in Latin America
Natalia Garbiras-Díaz
Despite systematic efforts by both countries and the international community to reduce its prevalence, corruption remains a pervasive phenomenon across the developing world. What explains the persistence of corruption? Furthermore, can social norms account for some of this persistence? In this paper, I study the effect of injunctive norms (the perceived moral rules that determine the approval or disapproval of social behavior) and descriptive norms (the perceived frequency of a conduct in a particular context) on individuals' behavior and attitudes towards corruption. I explore this question using a survey experiment conducted in Argentina, which isolates alternative explanations for corruption. I randomly show respondents vignettes that manipulate either the descriptive or injunctive norm. I then ask them to answer a series of questions that measure their attitudes toward bribery (e.g., the extent to which they consider bribery to be justifiable, among other questions), as well as other behavioral outcomes. While I find empirical evidence for the effect of descriptive norms on both individuals' attitudes and behavior related to corruption; I find no statistical support for the effect of injunctive norms on any of the analyzed outcomes. Taken together, results suggest that descriptive norms operate as informational devices, and that correcting misperceptions about these may serve as an antidote against corruption. To the best of my knowledge, little work has been done to identify the causal effect of social norms, and their interactions, on corruption. In this respect, this paper makes two contributions. From a theoretical perspective, it contributes to a growing body of research on the effect of culture on corruption, providing evidence on the causal relationship between social norms and attitudes toward bribery. From a policy perspective, it sheds light on methods to successfully design anti-corruption campaigns that reduce individuals' likelihood to engage in petty corruption.
Democracy, Outsiders and Anti-establishment Politics
Citizen Democratic Commitment Under Stress: Panel Evidence from a Self-Coup in Peru (Under review)
Hernán Carvajal, Loreto Cox and Natalia Garbiras-Díaz
Do citizens stand by their democratic principles when democracy is under threat? We address this question using a unique design that tracks Peruvians' democratic attitudes around Pedro Castillo's attempted 2022 self-coup. We combine a two-wave "pre-shock" panel measuring explicit support for democracy through direct questions and implicit support through votes for hypothetical undemocratic candidates in a conjoint experiment with a third wave capturing responses to Castillo's shock. We show that Castillo voters are more forgiving of the self-coup and adjust their standards to view shutting down Congress as no longer undemocratic. Yet, pre-shock stated commitment matters: explicit survey responses strongly predict condemnation of the self-coup, at least as strongly as having voted for Castillo. Notably, the conjoint measure predicts it only weakly. Robustness analyses using Colombian data provide external validity. Our findings offer real-world substantive and methodological insights into how democratic commitments shape citizens' responses when democracy is under stress.- Previously circulated as: “Easier said than done: Citizens’ stated and revealed democratic commitment in Latin America.” Presented at the 2025 APSA Annual Meeting, and the 2025 EPSA Annual Meeting
Corruption and the Rise of Political Outsiders: Evidence from local elections and audits in Brazil
Natalia Garbiras-Díaz and Lucas Novaes
In preparation.
Does compulsory voting breed anti-establishment voting? Evidence from Brazilian presidential elections
Natalia Garbiras-Díaz
Public opinion surveys show rising levels of distrust in parties and anti-elite preferences among voters worldwide. By capitalizing on this sentiment, anti-establishment candidates have increasingly won office in new and established democracies alike. Yet, certain institutional arrangements may be more conducive to the electoral success of these candidates. In this paper, I argue that compulsory voting may boost anti-establishment candidates by encouraging turnout among voters who would have otherwise abstained. At the voting booth, these voters are more likely to vote for candidates who align with their anti-establishment sentiment. I test this theory in the context of Brazil’s 2018 presidential election, leveraging age thresholds that make voting compulsory at the individual level as well as randomized variation in the proportion of compulsory voters across voting booths. I demonstrate that compulsory voting led to a sizable increase in electoral support for anti-establishment presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro. My findings underscore how critical turnout is for the prospects of anti-establishment candidates, as well as the unexpected effect of an institution often thought to bolster the quality of democracy.- Presented at the 2020 APSA Annual Meeting, and the 2021 ECPR Virtual Joint Sessions of Workshops
The Anatomy, Sources, and Consequences of Citizen Discontent with the Political Establishment: Experimental Evidence from Latin America (Under review)
Loreto Cox and Natalia Garbiras-Díaz
Riding a global wave of discontent with political elites, anti-establishment candidates have gained significant electoral success around the world. While over 70% of worldwide citizens express discontent, its characteristics, sources and consequences remain understudied, particularly using causal inference. To address this, we study citizen discontent in Latin America. Leveraging survey data from Colombia and Peru during the 2022 elections and combining experimental and observational approaches, we document five key findings. First, citizen discontent is widespread, extends beyond populist attitudes, and spans the ideological spectrum. Second, discontent is driven primarily by perceptions of corruption and broken promises. Third, heightened discontent reduces trust in institutions, and in Colombia—where voting is voluntary—it also mobilizes voters. Fourth, discontent does not change views about democracy. Finally, discontent shapes how citizens evaluate candidates, boosting the electoral appeal of anti-establishment rhetoric. Overall, we offer substantive and methodological contributions to understanding political disaffection in contemporary democracies.- Previously circulated as: “Anti-political-establishment Citizens: An in-depth study from two Latin American countries.” Presented at the 2022 EPSA Annual Meeting, and the VI Latin American Political Methods Meeting
Conflict and Post-conflict Studies
Prospective and retrospective approaches: conflict exposure and attitudes on the peace agreement in Colombia (Under review)
Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Miguel García-Sánchez, and Aila M. Matanock
This paper examines how citizens form attitudes toward peace agreements by weighing the costs and benefits of a deal, focusing on Colombia’s 2016 accord with the FARC. While existing research emphasizes evaluations shaped by the costs associated with prior violence, we argue that expectations of future benefits play a critical role in shaping public opinion. Drawing on self-interest theories, we propose that individuals in conflict-affected areas assess peace agreements based on anticipated material and non-material gains. Using a matched-pair design comparing municipalities included in the agreement’s development programs (PDET) with similar non-PDET areas, we evaluate the impact of eligibility for peace-related benefits on citizens’ knowledge, general attitudes, support for provisions, and future expectations. We find that residents in PDET municipalities are more informed, more supportive of provisions for regular citizens, and more optimistic about outcomes. These results suggest that public opinion on peace deals is shaped not only by past costs but also by perceived future benefits, underscoring the importance of forward-looking evaluations in post-conflict settings.
Spoiling Support for Peace Processes? (Under review)
Aila M. Matanock, Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, and Miguel García-Sánchez
This note examines how rebel factions that break from peace agreements can undermine public support for peace agreements. We hypothesize that such spoilers affect: expectations about rebel compliance; attitudes toward reconciliation and reintegration; and confidence in the peace agreement. Using a survey experiment conducted in Colombia shortly after a dissident group rearmed, we test these effects. Results show shifts in public attitudes, especially regarding reconciliation, which may destabilize the peace process. Spoilers can disrupt the path to peace by weakening support for coexistence with former combatants.
Do Third Parties Reduce Commitment Problems After Civil War? Microfoundational Evidence from Ex-Combatants in Colombia (Under review)
Leopoldo Fergusson, Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Juana García, Michael Weintraub and Laia Balcells
Since the Cold War, international third parties such as the United Nations (UN) have become frequent guarantors of peace agreements. Existing studies demonstrate that third parties ameliorate credible commitment problems, in part by reducing acute security threats faced by members of former rebel groups. Yet these studies exclusively marshal evidence at the macro-level, and are therefore unable to show whether ex-combatants are truly reassured by the presence and activities of third parties, and in what ways. Using a novel phone survey of 4,435 ex-combatants from the FARC-EP, Colombia’s largest rebel group, and an embedded survey experiment, we provide the first microfoundational test of prominent third party credible commitment theories. We find no evidence that third actors: increased confidence among ex-combatants that the government would fulfill its commitment to implement the peace agreement; increased confidence that the FARC would do the same; improved perceptions of physical safety; or increased trust in institutions more generally. Put differently, we are unable to recover microfoundational evidence in favor of third party credible commitment theories. We discuss potential explanations for these null findings and the study’s relevance for debates about conflict termination, implementation of the agreements and the duration of peace.- Presented at the 2022 ESOC Annual Meeting
Untouchable Forces: Restoring Trust in Security in Weak States?
Aila M. Matanock and Natalia Garbiras-Díaz
How can weak states improve security? We build on existing work theorizing that a crucial component of strengthening security is improving citizen perceptions of the institutions providing security and then thereby securing their cooperation with those institutions. We examine whether foreign missions that states invite to conduct security functions, "delegation agreements" (DAs), are able to change citizens' perceptions on these dimensions. We argue DAs are likely to improve citizen perceptions of security while they are operating but to have little transfer effect to state institutions. We test the theory by examining the U.N.'s International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), a team of investigators and prosecutors that operated in Guatemalan courts from 2007-2019, which was a canonical and seemingly successful DA. In this "most likely" case to detect any transfer effects, we use a survey experiment to examine, first, whether invoking CICIG as a case investigator increases citizen beliefs that the perpetrators and their state collaborators will be correctly identified, prosecuted, and convicted. We find that the CICIG prime does have consistently positive effects. We then examine citizen perceptions of institutions, and, measuring several outcomes, we find that CICIG has little transfer effect to state security institutions, although a successful CICIG may reduce the legitimacy of the state to some extent. Our results identify a positive effect from this foreign mission but no overall shift in citizen perceptions and subsequent pathway to increased security through their cooperation.
Actitudes de exintegrantes de las Farc–EP frente a la reincorporación
Ana Arjona, Leopoldo Fergusson, Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Juana García-Duque, Tatiana Hiller, Lewis Polo and Michael Weintraub
En agosto del 2019 se cumplieron dos años de la reincorporación de las Farc-EP. Este proceso es uno de los principales desafíos de la implementación del Acuerdo Final firmado entre el Estado colombiano y la organización guerrillera en noviembre de 2016. Los avances en materia de reincorporación garantizarán su sostenibilidad. En este documento analizamos las actitudes de los exintegrantes frente al proceso en esta primera etapa, tomando los resultados del Registro Nacional de Reincorporación (RNR), realizado entre la Agencia Nacional de Reincorporación (ARN) y el componente Farc del Consejo Nacional de Reincorporación (CNR). Tras mostrar que hay aspectos positivos en las actitudes de las personas en proceso de reincorporación, y algunos que deben mirarse con preocupación, estudiamos qué características de los exintegrantes y su entorno se asocian con mejores actitudes y condiciones para la implementación del proceso de reincorporación. Complementamos este análisis contrastando las actitudes de la población en proceso de reincorporación con las de la población civil, haciendo paralelos, en términos de los retos de política pública, para ambos grupos. La evidencia presentada sirve para canalizar esfuerzos en donde más parecen necesitarse.
